Vladimir Putin Addresses the Nation Following Attacks with ATACMS Missiles.
On November 17th, Joe Biden’s administration permitted Ukraine to use US-made ATACMS (Army Tactical Missile Systems) long-range missiles on Russian soil, rather than only in Ukraine and on the Crimean peninsula. This marked an escalation in the war after a seemingly long period of relative stability. The following events also contributed to illuminating the overbearing question: Will this conflict become something greater?
The decision comes as a response to North Korean troops being brought in to help Russian soldiers in the Kursk region invaded by the Ukrainian army. It is supposed to warn the foreign troops and let Pyongyang know its troops are vulnerable, perhaps discouraging Kim Jong Un from sending more. He blamed the US and its “aggressive and hostile” policy towards North Korea for its involvement in the conflict.
This was the next in line after restrictions regarding US weaponry were first alleviated in May when the Ukrainian army was allowed to use the HIMARS rocket system across the border with its 50-mile range. However, the ATACMS takes things a step further with its reach spanning up to 190 miles, giving Kyiv the ability to strike Russia deep into its territory with American-made weapons, something that was debated about since the very beginning of the war in 2022. Some US officials feared that this escalatory action would cause retaliation from Moscow against the States and their allies. Regardless, the move comes at a time when Russia is preparing a 50,000-soldier attack on the Kursk region in hopes of winning back the territories it lost in August. This, paired with the introduction of North Korean troops, pushed Washington over the edge and they decided to gamble with the repercussions despite advisers suggesting that Russia could react against US and European military bases within its range. American officials have said they do not believe this will change the course of the war but rather deter the North Korean interest in being involved.
Vladimir Putin addresses the nation following attacks with ATACMS missiles, source: CNN.
10,000 North Korean Troops Joined the Ranks of the Russian Army
Given that Donald Trump has expressed a will to quickly put a stop to the war as soon as taking office, the collective West is racing against time to boost Ukraine’s chances of achieving a satisfactory outcome. JD Vance, Trump’s running mate, has drawn up a negotiation plan in which Russia would keep the territories it took militarily. Since these peace talks seem imminent, Kyiv remains hopeful the Kursk region could be used to regain land lost in the east. However, should the joint Russian and North Korean offensive succeed, Ukraine will be left with no bargaining chips and in a completely dire situation.
Similar to the ATACMS, the UK and France also allowed Ukraine to use their long-range missile systems: Storm Shadow and SCALP, both of which have a range of around 155 miles. They previously made it clear that they would only give the green light after the US did first. This is significant because it marks the weapons of three NATO member states now being used on Russian soil, which is completely uncharted territory that brings extensive uncertainty and concern, especially with Moscow’s reply.
The Range and Specifications of ATACMS Missiles
As a response to the actions taken by the West and Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin decided to amend Russia’s nuclear doctrine. The law has changed in the sense that Russia now equates an attack from a non-nuclear state backed by a nuclear one to a joint attack. There were other policies put in place that decreased the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons, but most of them were very open-ended, preventing commitment on Russia’s part. Apart from this, Moscow began deploying Oreshnik missiles to strike the city of Dnipro in Eastern Ukraine. According to Mr. Putin, the missile can travel at 10 times the speed of sound (Mach 10); hence, there are “no ways of counteracting this weapon”. Since the missile is capable of carrying nuclear warheads, the general feeling is that its use is fundamentally a warning to show how quickly nuclear attacks could be carried out if the opportunity arose. Russian spokesman Dimitry Peskov confirmed that nuclear weapons could be used in response to an attack on the state’s territory with Western long-range missiles, marking a significant development and rhetoric not used in the war thus far.
The range and specifications of ATACMS missiles, source: Marca.
The Russian president issued a warning that the war had “acquired elements of a global character”. This view was also shared by Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk who claimed that “the threat is serious and real when it comes to global conflict”. The introduction of American, British, and French long-range missiles exacerbates tensions, pushing Russia towards an all-out war with NATO. Throughout the conflict, Russia has already tolerated some “red lines” being crossed, but this is by far the most severe one yet. It remains to be seen how the situation will unfold until Donald Trump takes power, and if it will already be too late.
Featured image: 10,000 North Korean troops joined the ranks of the Russian army, source: BBC.
