Trump’s Geopolitical Game of Risk

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On January 20, Donald Trump will take office ahead of his second term as president of the United States of America, bringing a lot of political instability. Aside from the domestic issues Trump plans to attack explosively, he has recently added oil to the fire with intimidating rhetoric used against neighboring territories and their owners. He expressed a desire to take control of Greenland and the Panama Canal and claimed Canada should become the 51st state or face consequences otherwise. What is behind these controversial claims?

Today’s geopolitical environment is rapidly evolving. With eastern powers such as Russia and China showcasing their power on the global stage, and European countries dynamically changing their ruling ideologies, the United States finds itself in an unsatisfactory situation. This naturally calls for measures to be taken to protect American interests, one being the control of the Arctic region. Greenland is home to Pituffik, the northernmost US army base. It holds immense significance as it would be the quickest way to fire nuclear weapons at Russia in the case of an all-out conflict emerging. Since Russia and China are also working on increasing their influence in the region, the US does not want to fall behind, and Denmark – who owns Greenland – has validated that by labeling Washington’s interests “legitimate”.

The south of Greenland also remains a point of interest due to its rare earth material reserves. The island has been on the US’ radar since 1867 when they first attempted to buy it after purchasing Alaska from Russia. They offered $100 million, equivalent to about $1.2 billion today. Trump also tried to acquire the territory in his first term, but both the Danish and the Greenlandic governments rejected the proposal, claiming it was not for sale.

This time around, he has not ruled out the use of economic or military force to get what he wants. However, this has not sat well with European leaders, all of which vow to display a united front against Trump’s expansionary campaign. Olaf Scholz insisted that the principle of inviolability of borders applied to all nations, and Jean-Noel Barrot, the French Minister of Foreign Affairs reassured the public that the EU would not allow “other nations of the world, whoever that may be, to attack its sovereign borders”.

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The threats given to Canada were not part of the original conference agenda. Source: Sky News

Similarly, Trump has shown the same aspirations regarding the Panama Canal. It was given to Panama by the US in 1999 in what the incoming president describes as a “magnanimous gesture of giving”. A quarter of a century later, he claims the gesture is not being respected and that this warrants the US retaking the Canal. He has criticized Chinese presence in the canal, vowing to prevent it from falling into “the wrong hands”. There currently are two ports at the entrances of the Canal under the control of a Hong Kong-based company called CK Hutchinson Holdings. Additionally, Trump accused Panama of charging extravagant rates to use the passage. Jose Raul Mulino, Panama’s president, insists Chinese influence in the canal is nonexistent and that the passage fees were not set “on a whim”. He pledged to keep every square meter of the canal and its surrounding area under Panama’s control, to which his American counterpart replied by saying “We’ll see about that”. Up to 14.000 ships cross the canal annually, making it responsible for 2.5% of global seaborne trade.

Aside from these direct threats, Canada has also appeared on the Republican’s watchlist as he entertained the idea of it becoming the 51st state or facing the consequences that would accompany noncompliance. He rejected the idea of military coercion but stated that economic measures could be taken to persuade Ottawa into making the desired choice. Trump described the US trade deficit with Canada as a “subsidy” that would be coming to an end if Canada did not comply. Canadian officials displayed a unanimous attitude towards Trump’s threats, with Justin Trudeau stating that “there isn’t a snowball’s chance in hell that Canada would become part of the United States”.

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The Panama Canal, visualized. Source: Britannica

Finally, the last item on Trump’s geopolitical shopping list is the Gulf of Mexico. He has issued a promise to the American people that the gulf’s name will be changed to Gulf of America, as he claims it “has a beautiful ring to it”. The Gulf has had its name for over 400 years, initially named by the Spanish conquerors after a city that was found nearby, not after the country we know today as is often believed. Nonetheless, it is hard to believe that something lasting for so long will be changed out of nowhere with no concrete reasoning. The American president could, in theory, work with the US Board of Geographical Names or with Congress to recognize it as the Gulf of America but no other country would be obliged to follow suit, and all it would realistically achieve is the creation of trade difficulties and textbook confusions.

All in all, this display of animosity towards neighbors is not something out of the ordinary when it comes to Donald Trump. However, threats as direct as these are a step further than we are used to, and leaders all across the world will be watching attentively to see whether they crystallize.

Featured image: Donald Trump Jr lands in Greenland. Source: BBC

Vukasin Tolic
Vukasin Tolic
Economics student who holds an interest in discovering the world by writing about it.

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