Is the Pandemic’s Economic Impact Subsiding?


The economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on certain global economies has begun subsiding recently, with nations such as Mexico, Thailand, India, Egypt, and the United Kingdom noting significantly higher economic growth rates. 

Mexico’s economic growth is expected to reach pre-pandemic levels in the third quarter of this year, reported the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). As of now, predictions show that Mexico’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will expand by 2.3% in 2022 and 2.6% in 2023. This growth occurred after the COVID-19 pandemic, and supply chain difficulties such as a shortage of semiconductor chips dramatically impacted the economy. 

Nikkei Asia reports that Thailand’s economy expanded 1.6% in 2021 due to a solid increase in exports and public investment. This increase broke projections after a recorded 6.2% contraction in 2020 due to the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic – such as a reduction in private consumption, implemented business lockdowns, and travel curbs. Currently, Thailand has maintained its GDP growth predictions at 3.5%-4.5% and is expected to continue with a rise in tourism, strong domestic demand, and limited health impacts.

However, all other major Southeast Asian economies, including Vietnam, Singapore, and Indonesia, reported better economic growth than Thailand (see the figure below) 

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Similarly, the Finance Ministry of India recently reported that 2022 could establish an improved economy of a post-pandemic world; as they continue committed to asset creation – stimulating public and private investment. Data shows how the nation’s economy is likely to grow at above 9%, as projected in advance statements of this year, and the real-growth competent is at 7.8%, according to the Reserve Bank of India. 

Egypt’s economic growth rate is forecasted to climb to 6% in 2022 after the country achieved a growth spurt of 9.8% in the first quarter of the year – their highest growth rate in 20 years. These positive indicators come after policies were implemented by the National Program for Structural Reforms to develop capital markets and improve the vocational training system. Despite the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the nation, the economy reached a growth rate of 3.3% from 2020-2021 and 3.6% in 2019-2020.

While, in Europe, the United Kingdom managed to achieve an economic growth rate of 7.5% in 2021, recovering from its 9.4% plummet in 2020 due to pandemic restrictions. Recent data shows that Britain’s GDP has increased by 1% in the last quarter of the year. This rise has been contributed to health and social work activities, the vaccination program, and continuous COVID-19 tracking and tracing procedures. 

Overall, the predicted and recorded economic growth achieved in these nations, along with external geopolitical and economic shocks, could derail the subsiding economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. Although uncertainty and instability over economic projections and growth levels are still present with risks, including COVID-19 spikes and continued inflation on a global scale. The referenced subsiding economic impacts of the pandemic on countries worldwide could indicate the possibility of a “post-pandemic world” becoming a reality sooner than we expect. 

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