Breaking months of isolation during which he had close to no direct contact with any major Western leader, Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz over the phone on Friday, November 15. Being the two leaders’ first time speaking with one another since the beginning of 2022, and Putin’s first discussion with a sitting head of state or government of a Western nation since late 2022, the announcement of the phone call sparked surprise, controversy, and shock.
Reportedly, the two leaders primarily discussed the ongoing war in Ukraine, with Scholz raising concerns over the alleged deployment of tens of thousands of North Korean troops to the frontline, calling it a “grave escalation”. Furthermore, Scholz urged Putin to be open to negotiations to end the conflict, to which Putin responded with a list of demands he would require from any peace settlement. These included a requirement that Ukraine not be allowed to join NATO and that Russian territorial gains inside Ukraine must be recognized, both of which have been refused outright by Ukraine. Following the call, Scholz stated that he believed it was high time for more diplomatic efforts towards ending the conflict; a view shared by others who have ramped up their efforts since former US President Donald Trump won reelection earlier this November. Fearing that Trump will drastically curtail American support for Ukraine, policymakers in Europe and the US seek to prepare Ukraine by increasing support before Trump takes office next January and expanding efforts to find a diplomatic solution.
Chancellor Scholz and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy during a meeting in Berlin in October. (Ebrahim Noroozi, 2024)
After Chancellor Scholz’s office announced the call, many European officials reacted with shock and concern. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, with whom Scholz spoke before and after speaking with Putin, said the call had the potential to open up a “Pandora’s Box” of undoing the isolation of Russia that had been created and consistently perpetuated by Western powers up until that point. He continued, saying it was important to keep up this isolation as a means of ensuring that Russia continues to feel repercussions from its unlawful invasion and that this call infringes on those efforts. Other European officials, such as Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis also criticized the call, describing it as a “really strange strategy”.
Despite numerous officials around the continent expressing surprise at the call, many in Germany were not. Chancellor Scholz, whose coalition government has recently collapsed, is facing the scary prospect of an upcoming early election, one in which polling predicts his Social Democrat Party (SPD) to do quite poorly in. Some of the parties looking to reap the most benefits from the SPD’s struggles are the extremist parties; the Alternative for Germany Party (AFD) on the right and the newly formed Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance on the left. Despite their ideologically opposite positions, one thing the parties both share is a sense of friendliness towards Russia, and have torn into the SPD for being too supportive of Ukraine and not putting enough effort into finding a diplomatic resolution to the conflict. Scholz has directed Germany’s wholehearted support of Ukraine, in the process breaking a number of traditions and precedents regarding arms sales, German participation in conflicts, and behavior towards Russia. As the second-biggest single-nation donor to Ukraine, giving over 15 billion euros since the onset of the conflict, Germany’s involvement in the war is clear. While many in German society have supported this change, saying it was necessary and justified, others have criticized it, saying it has prolonged an avoidable conflict and has led to countless deaths that needn’t have happened. As such, some in Germany see the call as Scholz attempting to appease his critics and increase his diplomatic efforts to end the conflict.
Chancellor Scholz speaks with Friedrich Merz, the leader of the CDU Party currently leading the polls for Germany’s upcoming election in February. (Kay Nietfeld, 2022.)
Despite this call that broke Putin’s direct isolation, it does not seem to have spread much beyond that. Support for Ukraine remains strong among most European nations, and some in Ukraine have even welcomed Trump’s reelection. For Scholz, knowing he likely won’t remain Chancellor after the elections early next year, the criticism he has received for the call is of minimal relevance to his thought process at best. Nonetheless, the call, along with Trump’s impending inauguration, may harken a new era in the conflict. In the two weeks since the call occurred, the conflict in Ukraine has remained relatively stable, with neither side making any major gains, something most analysts agree will continue during the winter. Yet, political changes around the world mean Ukraine may face a starkly different world come next year’s thaw.
Featured image: German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Russian President Vladimir Putin during their last in-person meeting in February 2022. (Getty Images, 2022.)
