I. Belarusian Politics
For more than 30 years, Belarus has been caught in the iron grip of Alexander Lukashenko, the man who proudly calls himself the country’s first, and apparently, only president. Since 1994, Belarus has held seven presidential elections, yet every single one (except the first) has been declared neither free nor fair by international observers. Lukashenko’s brand of governance is built on staying in power through control, spreading state propaganda, and maintaining key alliances, especially with Russia.
In 2020, Belarus saw its largest anti-government protests after widespread allegations of electoral fraud. Thousands took to the streets demanding democracy, but the response was brutal; mass arrests, torture, and political purges. Since then, opposition figures have been either jailed, exiled, or silenced, leaving no room for genuine political competition. The 2025 election, held on January 26, followed the same script: an elaborate performance with a predetermined ending.
The lack of political alternatives is not just a consequence of Lukashenko’s grip on power but also a reflection of a society where fear dictates silence. Many Belarusians, exhausted by decades of oppression, have resigned themselves to the belief that change is impossible. Those who once dared to resist now are behind bars. The system thrives on fear, ensuring that any sign of resistance before it can grow.
II. Another “Victory” for Lukashenko
The official results, announced by Belarus’s Central Election Commission, confirmed what everyone already knew; Lukashenko won with 87.48% of the vote. Despite a reported 85.7% voter turnout, the reality of the election was far from democratic. Independent media was either banned or forced into exile, and voters had no real alternatives. Overseas voting was completely eliminated, effectively disenfranchising thousands of Belarusians living in exile, many of whom fled after the 2020 crackdown. Lukashenko, predictably, called the election a triumph of democracy, while Western nations and independent observers called it a sham.
The pattern of overwhelming victories has repeated itself in every election since Lukashenko took office. Each time, the results are met with skepticism by the international community, but inside Belarus, challenging the outcome is nearly impossible. The state’s mechanisms are designed to eliminate dissent, crushing opposition before it can pose any real challenge. The real question is not if Lukashenko will win, but how exaggerated his next victory margin will be.
III. The Opposition: A Battle Already Lost?
To call this election a competition would be misleading. The only genuine opposition leader, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, was not even on the ballot; she remains in exile, having fled Belarus in 2020. Before the election, she urged Belarusians to boycott the vote, calling it a farce. Meanwhile, the candidates who were allowed to run were, for the most part, pro-Lukashenko figures. Sergei Syrankov, for example, openly stated that there was no alternative to Lukashenko, calling him the main Communist of Belarus. Others, like Oleg Gaidukevich, simply played their part in the script, ensuring that the illusion of democracy remained intact.
The real opposition was silenced. Over 1,250 political prisoners remain behind bars. Protests were minimal, not because people didn’t oppose Lukashenko, but because they were too afraid to take to the streets. After the 2020 crackdown, many Belarusians have learned that dissent has a high price: one that can cost them their freedom, or worse.
Even in exile, opposition leaders struggle to mobilize effective resistance. Many Belarusian activists abroad have limited resources and face pressure from foreign governments to avoid escalating tensions. Without strong external support, the opposition remains fragmented, unable to challenge Lukashenko’s regime in any meaningful way.
IV. Fear, Control, and Putin’s Backing
If there’s one thing Lukashenko knows how to do well, it’s survive. His power doesn’t come from popularity, it comes from a brutal security apparatus, strategic manipulation, and support from Moscow. Control over information remains essential to his rule, with independent media almost nonexistent in Belarus. The few remaining independent journalists operate from abroad, constantly at risk of persecution. Any form of anti-government sentiment is crushed before it can gain even a small chance. In November 2024, just two months before the election, over 100 activists were arrested, many linked to online political discussions.
Lukashenko’s survival largely depends on Russia’s backing. Vladimir Putin was among the first to congratulate him, solidifying Belarus’s status as a dependent ally of the Kremlin. Belarus has already allowed Russia to station tactical nuclear weapons on its territory and has served as a key ally in Moscow’s geopolitical strategies. Western leaders were quick to condemn the election. The EU, UK, and US refused to recognize the results, and there were calls for additional sanctions on Belarus. However, Hungary, a frequent Putin sympathizer, blocked an EU-wide statement rejecting the election, exposing fractures in Europe’s stance.
The symbiotic relationship between Lukashenko and Putin ensures that Belarus remains a strategic asset for Russia. In return, Lukashenko receives political and economic lifelines that keep his government afloat. Without Putin’s support, his grip on power would weaken significantly; however, this dependence also makes him vulnerable. If Moscow ever decides that Lukashenko is no longer useful, his rule could end much sooner than expected.
V. Will Lukashenko Ever Leave?
At 70 years old, Lukashenko is one of the longest-ruling leaders in the world. The question is: what happens when he’s gone? He has already laid the groundwork to maintain control even after leaving office. His newly created Belarusian People’s Assembly allows him to retain influence even in “retirement”. There’s also speculation that one of his sons could take over, turning Belarus into a family dictatorship.
VI. Final Thoughts
The 2025 Belarusian presidential election wasn’t just rigged, it was a performance. A performance in which Lukashenko plays the role of a “democratically elected leader” while the Belarusian people are denied real choice. With no free press, no independent judiciary, and no genuine opposition, Belarus is not a democracy—it is an authoritarian regime propped up by fear and Russian support. But authoritarian rule is not eternal. The Belarusian people have shown before that they are willing to fight for change. The question is: when will their next opportunity come? And when it does, will Lukashenko still be there to crush it, or will history finally catch up with him?
Featured image: PBS NewsHour. “Lukashenko Set to Win a 7th Term in Belarus Presidential Election That the Opposition Calls a Farce.” PBS, January 26, 2025
