Israel and Hamas Strike Ceasefire Deal

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January 19, 2025, marked the beginning of phase one of the ceasefire in Gaza between Israel and Hamas – 15 months since the war started. Since the conflict’s beginning on October 7, 2023, Israel has killed over 46,000 people and Hamas has killed 1,139

Conditions of the Ceasefire

According to Qatar and the United States, the deal was agreed upon on January 15. Phase one is to last six weeks and includes the following conditions:

  • Limited prisoner exchange: 33 Israeli captives taken by Hamas on October 7 are to be released. 
  • Troop withdrawal: Israeli troops will withdraw to no more than 700 meters within Gaza’s border with Israel.
    • However, this excludes the Netzarim Corridor, a militarized belt that controls movement along the Gaza Strip. 
  • Civilian return: Civilians will be allowed to return to their homes in northern Gaza, where there are reports of a “strong likelihood” of famine.
  • Aid surge: 600 aid trucks will be allowed to enter the enclave per day.
  • Opening of Rafah crossing: The Rafah crossing with Egypt will open seven days after phase one is implemented.

As of the first week of the implementation of phase one, the terms of phases two and three have yet to be negotiated. Israel has given no written guarantees to not resume attacks after the completion of phase one.

The proposed plan for phase two demands a complete withdrawal from Gaza and the release of the remaining captives under Hamas in exchange for the freedom of more Palestinians held in the Israeli prison system. The Israeli cabinet has yet to vote on this proposal, and there is no clear plan for phase three. 

Timeline to Ceasefire

[adapted from the BBC]

  1. 7 October 2023: Hamas attacks southern Israel. 
  2. 27 October 2023: Ground invasion of Gaza by Israel. Since then, the population of 2.3 million has mostly been displaced.
  3. 20 November 2024: US vetoes a draft by the UN Security Council calling for an immediate ceasefire.
  4. 2 December 2024: Trump declares there will be “all hell to pay” if the hostages held by Hamas are not released by his inauguration on January 20, 2025.
  5. 15 January 2025: Israel and Hamas agree on ceasefire deal. 
  6. 19 January 2025: Phase one of the ceasefire deal begins. 

What Now?

Despite the deal, there is no confirmation of who will administer Gaza after the ceasefire. 

Members of the Israeli government and its ally, the United States, have mentioned the possibility of ending the ceasefire. Prime Minister of Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, has claimed that “both President Trump and President Biden gave full backing to Israel’s right to return to fighting, if Israel comes to the conclusion that negotiations on Phase B are futile.” Furthermore, Bezalel Smotrich, the Finance Minister of Israel, has threatened to resign if Netanyahu decides not to break the ceasefire after phase one. Notably, newly inaugurated Donald Trump has stated that he is “not confident” that the ceasefire will last.   

While phase one is set to be implemented within the next few weeks, the negotiations of phases two and three have yet to be agreed upon.

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