China’s population has steadily declined over the past three years, with a drop of 850.000 people in 2022, 1.1 million in 2023, and 1.39 million in 2024. Caused by increasing living costs and flaws in the social structure, the decline in population could potentially harm the economic and social balance of the country.
After the Second World War, the Chinese population, under Mao Zedong, the founding father of the People’s Republic of China, doubled in number from around 540 million to 1 billion. The improved health care, living standards, and social stability played a huge role in this increase.
However, this also raised concerns about resource distribution and economic stability, leading to the One-child policy in 1980. This regulation restricted families from having more than one child, with fines and penalties imposed in case of violation. Its aim was to control population growth and establish economic stability, however, even after its termination in 2016, huge demographic issues remained.
Due to the general preference of male children over female children, a significant gender imbalance emerged in the region. Moreover, as the economy started to grow exponentially, labour shortages began to surface alongside a rapidly aging population, with fewer young people able to support the elderly.
In 2016, the first year following the end of the One-child policy, the number of births in China increased by 1.3 million. This trend, however, did not last long, with the birth rate dropping in the consecutive years. The population of the country has been steadily shrinking ever since. In 2022, the number of deaths surpassed the number of births, for the first time since the 1960s.The increasing living costs is a contributing factor to this downfall. This phenomenon is nevertheless not pertinent to China, as a similar pattern is found in other Asian countries, such as South Korea, Japan, and Thailand.
When asked whether they are planning to have more children, Chinese citizens respond negatively, outlining that the costs of raising a child are at an all-time high, making it harder for families to take that step. The Chinese social structure is another reason, as parents do not have enough time to raise their children whilst also making a living.Over the last few years, more adults are choosing their professional careers over having children, on the grounds of not wanting to be a parent and take on such a huge responsibility.
The Chinese economy grew by 5% in 2024, meeting government expectations, however, the debt-to-GDP ratio continues to increase and the growth rate of Real gross domestic product is expected to fall. The revenue drop and lessened labor force are expected to lead to higher prices and inflation in countries which have a close trade relationship with China. While the National Statistics Bureau mentions that there should be no concerns, as the “overall labor supply still exceeds demand”, economists believe that China will have to focus more on quality rather than on quantity.
To fight the population decline in China, both formal and legal measures, as well as some social and informal actions must be taken. Policies offering subsidies and improved health care to pregnant women and children have been established, with maternity insurance and medical coverage included. Unfortunately, these have proven to have little to no effect, as other costs still remain very high.
“Marriage markets”, where parents and grandparents seek future spouses for their children, traditionally contributed to the increase of marriage rates, and consequently birth rates, but they have not been efficient in reversing the general trend of declining population. China also tries to implement measures, such as labelling unmarried women in their late twenties “leftover women”, to apply social and psychological pressure to increase marriage rates, however these have had no effect as well.
Other social measures, such as labeling unmarried women in their late twenties “leftover women”, to apply social and psychological pressure are taking place. In traditional “Marriage markets”, where “agents” present profiles of people ready to get married, also contribute to improving the marriage and birth rates.
Overall, while these measures have had positive outcomes in some regions, China is still facing major economic and social challenges when addressing the issue of a declining population.
